I would like to take some time to discuss a hand that I found interesting. The mathematics of the hands are fairly routine, but as usual, the psychology of the hand is of more interest to me.

The hand is taken from last weeks Friday Challenge, the $30 15k guaranteed Deepstack tournament. When offering a hand history for discussion, it's best to provide your readers with a bit of history involving both your opponent, as well as yourself to establish what image others might have of you.

In this instance, we don't have much history with the opponent. The opponent has been relatively quiet, taking a few flops but not really getting out of hand post-flop. On the other hand, we have been very active. We aggressively pushed our way up to the top 20, but recently lost a large chunk with AQ against J8. We have won the last 3 hands in a row without a showdown.

#Game No : 62932716
***** Cassava Hand History for Game 62932716 *****
$100/$200 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** 27 11 2009 17:10:36
Tournament #25290417 $30 + $3 - Table #29 (Real Money)

Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: azzaruby ( $9,635 )
Seat 2: Fuzzner ( $4,072 )
Seat 4: szepan ( $13,032 )
Seat 5: Italianfish ( $5,295 )
Seat 6: lamersr ( $6,224 )
Seat 7: bonzai5 ( $10,170 )
Seat 8: feebeenoot ( $14,355 )
Seat 9: aaronlt ( $5,285 )
Seat 10: MMoate ( $9,010 )

lamersr posts ante [$20]
azzaruby posts ante [$20]
aaronlt posts ante [$20]
Italianfish posts ante [$20]
Fuzzner posts ante [$20]
feebeenoot posts ante [$20]
szepan posts ante [$20]
bonzai5 posts ante [$20]
MMoate posts ante [$20]
Fuzzner posts small blind [$100]
szepan posts big blind [$200]

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to aaronlt [ Jh, Ad ]
Italianfish folds
lamersr calls [$200]
bonzai5 folds
feebeenoot folds
aaronlt raises [$1,000]
MMoate folds
azzaruby folds
Fuzzner folds
szepan folds
lamersr calls [$800]

Let's start with the preflop action. lamersr's preflop limp is normally not a good one. Anytime you're limping from early position, you're simply not protecting your chips. Sometimes you can get away with this early in the first couple blind levels. Once the blinds begin to go up however, there really isn't much of an argument for doing so.

Our raise is too big. Traditional standard raises have been deemed 3x the big blind +1 extra bet for every person in the pot. So in this case, that would make the standard bet 4x the blind (or 800). However tournament regulars will tell you that you don't need to bet the full 3x the blind amount to accomplish the same thing. Changing your bet amounts to 2.5x the big blind as a standard open will accomplish the same thing, and save you half a blind - which adds up over time.

So keeping that in mind, our raise to 5x the blinds is simply unnecessary and sloppy. The action folds back around to lamersr who flat calls. Again he has opted to play passively out of position, this time against an abnormally large raise.

** Dealing flop ** [ Th, Kd, Kh ]
lamersr bets [$5,204]
aaronlt ???????????

The flop comes down and more or less misses us, leaving us with just a gutshot and some backdoor draws. Our opponent moves all-in, betting ~$5200 (in affect only 4200 since he has more chips than we do) into a pot size of only ~$2400.

I have previously discussed how playing poker is like story telling. Before the flop, our opponent told us one thing. He played his hand slow, and passively. By limping and only flat calling our raise, he was telling us he had a hand that he wanted to see a flop with, but really wasn't confident enough to raise with it. On the flop, he moves all in, betting more than what is in the pot.

What he tries to tell us on the flop is that he has the best hand, and if we want to play it will be for our entire stack. However what he actually says is that he "thinks" he might have the best hand, and he is "hoping" that we don't have a King.

It would be an awful bet with a king, since the opponent has bet out, he prevented my aggressive tendencies to bet this flop. If he had a king, all he had to do was to check, I likely would have bet, and he could have stuck his chips in collecting a nice pot.

So then we have to consider, what type of hand would he have where he would try to encourage me to fold and win the pot right here? Since we have ruled out a King, the next obvious choice is Ten. It is very possible for our opponent to have a pair of tens here. He may be the type of player who likes seeing flops with close connecting hands like 9T or JT. He sees the flop, decides it isn't likely for us to have a king and moves all in trying to win the hand immediately. A flush or a straight draw is very possible. Perhaps he has a JQ and feels that we may have missed the flop, so he'll try to bluff us here, and should he get called, he still has a draw to fall back on. In this instance, we're actually a favourite with our ace high.

Another possibility is an action that I see more and more from impulsive players. They hold a pocket pair, and they aren't quite sure how to play it. So often they play it passively preflop, since they haven't developed a plan on how to play it after the flop. The flop comes down and there is 1 (or even 2) overcards. All of a sudden they switch into hyper-aggressive mode with their pair and put their tournament life on the line - PRAYING that their opponents haven't hit that overcard and that they can win the hand right here. You'll often see a line like this with hands like KK on an AXX flop or QQ on a KXX flop. (It happens often enough that I had a regular forum member do the same thing this past Monday Twins challenge at my table).

So if our opponent has a hand such as TX, that gives us 10 outs. 3 Aces, 3 Jacks, 4 Queens. However if our opponent has a hand such as 99, that gives us an additional 3 outs, where if any ten hits, we will counterfeit his two pair. If our opponent then has a pair lower than 9s, say 55 for example, any turn card above his pair and below 10 will give us yet another 3 outs. So we could potentially be looking at 13 outs on the flop, and 16 outs on the turn, and that doesn't even factor in the possible back-door flush. At worst, we're 10 outs, which is the same as having a set against a flush.

Given that it is going to cost us 4200 into a pot of about 6500, we're getting about 1.5 to 1 on our money. This means for it to be a good call, we need to win the hand about 40% of the time. Against 9T, we are almost exactly 40%. So against the hand that is most likely, and the hand that gives us the least amount of outs, we have the right price to call. With all the other possible scenerios, the 13/16 out pocket pairs he might hold, the draw semi-bluffs he might be on, making the call becomes very much the correct play. Often, making us the favourite, even against a small pair.

I find this hand very interesting, because before making the call, my first instinct was to fold. We have ace high, against an all-in overbet. How often could this actually be a correct call? It feels almost automatic to fold, as I'm sure would be the initial response most people may have without stopping to consider the hand thoroughly.

It also stresses the importance to look beyond your own cards. Simply playing the cards you're dealt isn't enough. We need to be able to look at our opponent, and make our decisions based on the two cards infront of them, as well as the two infront of you.

Instant replay has shown it's importance in major sports over the last few years. The NFL has adopted Coaches Challenges, NHL for goal line reviews, even last years World Series had baseball fans questioning how much review should be used in the game.

Poker has an entirely different use for replays. As discussed previously, 888 has now added the ability to save your hand histories to your computer (a hand history is a detailed description of a hand or session played). This is easily done by choosing SETTINGS in your lobby, selecting HAND HISTORY, and simply checking the box and choosing a pathway to save on your hard drive.

Hand histories are essential for post-game analysis. For a long term winning player, going over his or her game with a fresh mind and fresh set of eyes is the absolute best way to plug any leaks, big or small. However, it is often very difficult to identify the mistakes we are making, since afterall, they are our mistakes in the first place.

Fortunately, this is an easy problem to solve! Have someone else find the leaks for you. There are no shortages of poker communities for todays online players. The 888 forums are a perfect place to look for a helping hand when it comes to analyzing gameplay.

So you've taken the first step and saved your hand histories so that they can be scrutanized. You've taken the second step and joined a forum so that others can offer an objective opinion of your play. The next step is to make it as easy as possible for these people to help you.

If you're simply asking for advice about 1 hand, than posting the hand history should be enough. Remember to leave out the results of the hand when posting a hand history. When you include the results, the answers and feedback you receive about the hand will be biased.

If however you are asking for advice about an entire tournament, posting the entire hand history is far too dense for anyone to comb through looking for leaks. For example, the previous Sunday Challenge took approximately 500 hands to reach the final table. If you were to go on and win this game, you would be asking someone to observe 600 hands - which is alot of work.

To make this easier, there are a variety of sites offering Hand Replayers. Here, you can simply upload the tournament file which you've saved to the computer, and the program will replay the entire tournament for you. Often including additional features such as fast forward etc.

By taking advantage of tools such as these, you make it easier for others to help you, and are that much closer to continued success.

While there many hand replayers available, few are yet compatible with 888 hand histories. Clicking HERE will take you to a replayer that does support 888 hand histories.

888 have always run satellites to a variety of live event games around the world: From the Aussi Millions, to the Canadian Heads up Championship in Calgary. One thing these games all have in common - They are always Winner-Take-All.

It is a fantastic opportunity that is available to every online player, whether they play professionally or are just a casual weekend player. Anyone has the opportunity to play in games like the World Series, usually for as little as $5.

Recognizing that winner-take-all formats require a drastic change in approach is essential if you want to have success in these types of games. This is easier said than done. Consider the average player who decides they want to try to qualify for the World Series of Poker. To play in this qualifier, they aren't likely to pay the entire $300 - $500 buy in the qualifier would normally cost. So instead, they opt for the satellite route.

Our hero begins his journey to the WSOP playing the cheapest satellites he can find. We'll use $5 satellites for the sake of this example. In this $5 game, 1 in 5 players move on. This particular satellite manages to get 120 players. So the top 24 finishers in this game will move on to the next satellite. The best strategy for our hero to adopt here is patience and survival. We probably don't need more than 2 double ups to have enough chips to slide into the top 24. Obviously if we had more, it would make life alot easier, but we aren't under pressure to go aggressively looking for chips.

When playing a satellite, finishing 24th is the same as finishing 1st. This means that accumulation of chips really is secondary to survival. An example of this:

You're on the bubble, 25 players left.
Blinds are 500/1000
You're seated on the button with 3000 chips

In big blind and small blind are the two tournament chip leaders.

You are dealt Kc Ks

The action is folded around to you.

Rather than instantly shoving, consider the make-up of the table and the chip stacks of the remaining players. You notice that in seat 6 there is a player with 1200 chips, who has been taking his time before folding every hand.

You could shove your hand here, you have Kings afterall. But with the two chip leaders still to act, and only 1 person left before everyone wins, you can expect that you're going to get called fairly often. You'll be a favourite almost always, but even as an 80/20 favourite, we're taking a 20% risk here that may not be necessary.

By folding our Kings in this spot, the blinds will soon reach the player in seat 6. Perhaps they even go up to 600/1200 before they reach him. At any rate, player 6 is likely to be all in, playing for his tournament life with a hand he probably doesn't like that much (since he waited so long his options are limited). By opting for survival here rather than accumulation, we avoid unnecessary risks to win the same prize. Now obviously if there was an increasing prizepool, where finishing 19th is worth more than 24th, then we certainly would be playing those kings.

How is this different from the Main Event qualifier?

Skipping ahead, our hero has managed to win the $5 satellite, as well as the $20 and $100 satellites that follow, and has earned his seat into the main event qualifier.

Now our hero is in a game with only 30 players. 30 other players who have either bought in directly via the expensive buy in, or have also qualified through one or numerous satellites. Either way, the competition and dynamic of the game is night-and-day from the original $5 satellite.

Of these 30 players, only 1 is moving on, and 2nd place will earn exactly the same thing as 30th. So what does this mean? This means that from start to finish, our hero needs to be collecting chips. There is very little to be gained from patience. There is no prize pool money ladder to climb. So sitting back and letting other players get eliminated doesn't do you any favours.

Someone may argue, "but Aaron, every person eliminated brings our Hero one step closer to 1st, and one step closer to winning!" I would argue that every elimination made by someone else brings us one step further away. Rather than looking at it as outlasting 29 other players, consider it this way:

30 players, each starting with 3000 chips. That's 90 000 total chips in play. In order to be considered a winner in this game, you need to collect all 90 000 chips. So Player A knocks out Player B, putting you 1 player closer to 1st. You STILL need to collect that players 3000 chips. Only now they might be in the hands of a stronger player, and harder to get.

Obviously we are very rarely going to have games where we eliminate everyone. Most games we play, we probably only eliminate a handful. The point of this argument isn't to suggest our Hero goes into this game trying to knock out every person he can. It is to remind our hero that aggressive accumulation of chips will make sure he is actively working towards winning. Rather than patiently riding the wave to the final table, where he is now outchipped and looking at a very steep hill to climb.

I'd argue still, a player who takes a coin flip for a 30 000 chip pot with 10 players remaining, is giving himself a better chance to win, than a player who has limped into the final four and picks up Aces with a 3000 chip stack. Even if the second player doubles up with the Aces, they will likely still be the short stack. Also, given that they have played so tight, they aren't likely to be called lightly by the remaining 3 players. However the first player, who takes a coin flip for 30 000 chips with 10 players left, is going to be eliminated 50% of the time. The other 50% of the time, he's going to be holding 33% of the entire tournament chips with 9 players left, and will be a clear favourite to win.

An example of an accumulative play during a Winner-Take-All format:

Hand 1

There are 6 players left. Through either a cold deck or bad beats, our Hero is the short stack.

Blinds are 400/800
We are on the button with 4800 chips

The first three players fold the action around to the Hero.

Hero looks down and sees that he has a Qd 3h.

Previously, I suggested that we fold Kings in a similar situation on the bubble of a satellite. Here, there is no bubble except for the one between 2nd and first. Waiting for others to get eliminated won't help us win. So I suggest we shove.

By shoving, we are putting the pressure on both the blinds to pick up a reasonable hand to call us. If they both fold, we will have added 25% to our stack uncontested. A very large, and important amount. If we are called, it isn't the end of the world. We can always catch a Queen or a three. We might even be called by hands like 89, 9T, JT where we are a slight favourite.

A move like this is dependant on the blinds. If there is a monstrous chip leader in big blind who isn't likely to fold any Ace, King or Queen, then we might want to let a hand like this go, and look for a hand like 67s or any ace instead.

The point is, the cards in our hand are probably the last thing to consider when considering an all-in at this stage of the game. How much can we add? How many chips do the people still left to act have? Are they likely to fold? Can I find another spot to steal soon if I fold? These are all far more relevant questions to ask.

These games aren't easy, and they don't come around very often. It is easy to fall into a defensive mindset when playing one of these. Especially if they extend beyond your normal buyins allowed by your bankroll. Although it may be difficult to accept at first, playing it safe is probably the most dangerous strategy you could take.

The November Nine final table of the World Series has finally come to end, and what an end it was! Arguably the most anticipated World Series final table ever, with Phil Ivey making his first main event final table, this years November Nine did not disappoint. With last years event taking 168 hands to get down to the final two, we still had 7 players left fighting for the title this time around.

When play started, we had a huge difference in chips from the chip leader Darvin Moon over 55 million, to James Akenhead holding on just under 7 million chips.

Darvin Moon 58,930,000
Eric Buchman 34,800,000
Steven Begleiter 29,885,000
Jeff Shulman 19,580,000
Joe Cada 13,215,000
Kevin Schaffel 12,390,000
Phil Ivey 9,765,000
Antoine Saout 9,500,000
James Akenhead 6,800,000

It looked to be an early exit at first for Akenhead, who quickly changed everyone's minds with some big hands, doubling quickly. Also picking up some early pots was Schaffel. However our first casualty occured when Akenhead ans Schaffel squared off, with the unfortunate case of Aces against Kings. Schaffel collected the pot, and James was left with a tiny stack. Sooner after James pushes 33 and Schaffel calls with 99. The nines hold, and James collects $1.2 million for 9th.

Schaffel looked to be in great shape now, and even better shape when he got it all in, again with Aces against, this time Eric Buchman's, Kings. However all of Schaffel's early joys were quickly squashed as the board ran out KQJK and Buchman clinched the huge pot and the chip lead.

With 7 left, the biggest chip mover was probably Antoine Saout as he continued to play well and pick up pot after pot taking himself out of a dangerous position into a position of control. Ivey was able to build his stack up to about 16 million, however having trouble picking up any hands he found himself back around the 9 million mark when he looked down at AK. Ivey managed to get the chips into the middle against Moon's AQ. Unfortunately for Ivey, and what seems like millions of supporters, the Queen hit the flop, and Ivey was unable to catch up. Ending his main event run in 7th.

Moon, wasting no time, decided to ride his wave of luck against Steve Begleiter's all in, and again showed AQ. However he was in trouble once again as Begleiter tabled pocket Queens. The flop ran out harmless, with a brick on the turn it looked as if Begleiter was going to take a huge pot, only for the Ace to spike the river. Moon takes down another enormous pot from behind, and Begleiter is sent to the rail in 6th.

Shulman who has been relatively quiet, gets the chips in with JJ against Cada's 33 only to see a 3 out the door. The Jack never comes, and Shulman is left nursing a small stack. He manages to double back up with A5 against Saout's KQ, only to push 77 soon after. The call is made again by Saout, who seems to have it in for Shulman who tables an A9. The 9 hits the board and Shulman is sent packing in 5th.

Buchman ends up pushing all in preflop over Saout's raise, and Saout makes the call for his tournament life with AK. A flop of KT6 brings a bit of relief to Saout, and as he dodges the Q on the turn and the river, he collects the largest pot of the tournament sending him to 89m chips, and Buchman down to under 10m. Buchman doubles through Moon with KT v A7 hitting a K on the flop. However next hand the two get it all in again, this time Buchman has the A5 to Darvin's KJ. The flop whifs both players, but the turn brings the fatal King, and Buchman collects $2.5m for 4th.

After the break, Cada comes in with a raise, Saout reraises and Cada makes the all-in shove. Saout instantly calls and we have Cada's 22 against Saout's QQ. Cada again dodges elimination as the flop spikes his deuce. There is no Queen on the turn and river, and Cada doubles up. A few hands later, after some preflop raising, Saout and Cada get all the chips in the middle once again. Saout holding 88 and Cada AK for the coin flip. The flop and turn are both harmless for Saout, but the King hits the river, Cada rakes in the chips and Saout rakes in $3.4 million for third.

There was a break for heads up play, and the two remaining players were given a day to recover as the final Heads Up match would be played on November 9th.

Going into Heads Up, it looked like Cada would have a serious edge as he held a fairly dominating stack of just under 3:1 over Moon's ~50m chips.

However if the very first hand was an example of what was still to come, this match was far from over.

On a king high flop, a raising war broke out. An ace on the turn, Cada check calls as Moon bets 10m. They check the river and Moon wins the first pot with QQ over Cada's 99. After a number of hands Moon eventually takes the chip lead.

On a board of 4 9 T T Moon checks for the second time. Cada makes a bet and Moon moves all in. Cada takes some time with the decision and eventually makes the call showing J9. Moon tables 87 for the straight draw and needs to catch a 6 or a Jack to win. The river is a 3 and Cada recaptures the chip lead.

Eventually, with Cada holding the chip lead, both players get it in preflop, and we have a race. Cada has 99 to Darvin's QJs.
The flop is a harmless 278
The turn is a K
And the river is another 7.

The 21 year old Joe Cada takes the pot, and the Bracelet, as the 2009 World Series Champion!

1st $ 8,547,042 Joseph Cada
2nd $ 5,182,928 Darvin Moon
3rd $ 3,479,670 Antoine Saout
4th $ 2,502,890 Eric Buchman
5th $ 1,953,452 Jeff Shulman
6th $ 1,587,160 Steven Begleiter
7th $ 1,404,014 Phil Ivey
8th $ 1,300,231 Kevin Schaffel
9th $ 1,263,602 James Akenhead

Fallsview Casino Niagara has just announced the schedule for the upcoming Poker Classic, a Canadian Poker Tour event.

There will be three main tournaments running from January 8th - 14th and over 2.3 Million dollars worth of prize money given away. The tournament information looks like this:

Main Tournament Information
January 8 grand prize $80,000*
January 10 grand prize $200,000*
January 12 grand prize $400,000*
Buy In - $1,000
January 8 Day 1 start 12 pm
January 9 Day 2 start 12 pm
January 10 Day 3 start 4 pm**
Buy In - $2,500
January 10 Day 1 start 12 pm
January 11 Day 2 start 12 pm
January 12 Day 3 start 4 pm**
Buy In - $5,000
January 12 Day 1 start 12 pm
January 13 Day 2 start 12 pm
January 14 Day 3 start 12 pm

**start time may be delayed**

Each tournament has been given a guaranteed grand prize of $80 000, $200 000 and $400 000 respectively.

The Casino has said they will be hosting step-structure satellites for the events. In previous years the old Casino Niagara has typically run step 1 satellites as well, however you may want to check in advance before pursuing that alternative.

This should be a very entertaining event, and an even better excuse to visit Niagara.

Stay tuned to the blog for possible upcoming online qualifiers!

Harli, a 26 year old Torontonian and an 888 regular is tearing apart the competition. If you've ever been deep in a tournament on 888, you've surely come across Harli at some point or another at the final table.

Harli has always been a consistent winner, however this past month of October the young Canadian raised his game. With online tournament winnings over $85 000 that I know of (likely much more), Harli seems to have found his stride and elevated his game to the next level. Now that Harli has stepped up his game, look for him to go deep in the Daily Challenges on 888 as he is always a threat to win.

Congratulations Harli, long may it continue!

For a limited time, if you are thinking about making your first cash deposit at Pacific Poker, now is the time to do it.

Starting August 15th and running until April, if you make your first deposit at 888, you can climb your way to Gold Status for only 1/5th of the points.

That's a phenomenal time saving deal. In 20% less time than it would normally take you to earn Silver, you could already have Gold status and be reaping all the benefits to go along with it. Gold AND Silver freerolls as well as Gold quality Frequent Player Points.

All you have to do is...

For GOLD Status – make your first deposit and generate at least 300 Status Points (normally 1,500!) from August 15 – 31

For SILVER Status – make your first deposit and generate at least 100 Status Points (normally 500!) from August 15 – 31

Upgrades will be granted on September 1st!

With the new Reward Scheme available to all players on 888, it pays to pay attention.

Besides the monthly freerolls per status, there are also weekly Silver status freerolls. Make sure you are taking full advantage of all the freerolls available. The VIP 10k freeroll is a fantastic tournament and should be the aspiration of every regular player on 888.

As well, frequently there are restricted tournaments that you may be able to enter that you hadn't heard about. Make sure you are paying close attention to the restricted section of the tournaments to find a tourney for you.